Sat, Nov 21, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 16 | 09 | 14 | 432 |
| STL | 213 | 011 | 17 | 02 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brad Richards, Teemu Pulkkinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:10STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:50STLJori LehteraAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 18:31DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Darren Helm, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:42DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 17:50STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:41DETTeemu PulkkinenPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:27DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 9:02DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 0:16STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- OT 3:04STLColton Parayko: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Datsyuk – Pulkkinen9:07
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan13:15
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening10:01
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:32
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko13:34
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Green – DeKeyser2:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green17:18
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Backes – Paajarvi7:39
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko11:36
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Jaskin8:38
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gomez – Brouwer – Fabbri4:54
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson2:39
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko2:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).