Sun, Nov 22, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 214 | 18 | 329 |
| CAR | 110 | 311 | 08 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31CARBrett PesceAssists: Brad Malone · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 4:26CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 13:02LAKDustin BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 14:00LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 17:46CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 9:15LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:00CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:00LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:45LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:45LAKAnze Kopitar: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 5:49LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:57CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P2 13:02CARNoah Hanifin: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 17:11LAKJordan Nolan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:08LAKTanner Pearson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:35LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41CARJordan Staal: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Shore11:06
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 20–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson6:35
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli6:57
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson3:55
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain12:22
xG 0.87–0.06 (93%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Doughty – McNabb12:21
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty8:43
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm12:26
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom13:02
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Nash – Skinner9:07
xG 0.15–0.66 (18%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Pesce15:34
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Slavin – Hanifin14:06
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk17:12
xG 0.39–1.06 (27%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).