Mon, Nov 23, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 0, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 011 | 06 | 031 |
| NYR | 03 | 14 | 212 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:32NYRRick NashGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 4:23NYRDerek StepanAssists: Marc Staal, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 10:38NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:07NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P1 13:31NYRKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P1 16:39NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:32NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:36NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:53NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:45NSHJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:31NYRJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:31NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:13NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:13NSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Bourque – Jarnkrok7:51
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith8:21
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:01
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Watson5:51
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi13:22
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones8:54
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm12:56
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Hayes11:13
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller4:08
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:21
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Stoll – Moore – Stalberg4:44
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh7:05
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal6:36
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal8:16
xG 0.14–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).