Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 5, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 37 | 525 |
| NYR | 011 | 112 | 011 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Lars Eller, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:25MTLDevante Smith-PellyGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 17:42NYRRick NashPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 0:17MTLDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 1:29MTLAlex GalchenyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 9:06MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.33 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:19NYRDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09MTLDale Weise: Interference2 min
- P2 3:46NYROscar Lindberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:33MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:10MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:00MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:48NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02NYROscar Lindberg: Interference2 min
- P3 16:20MTLNathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto7:51
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:25
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Semin – Byron – Flynn2:54
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Smith-Pelly10:21
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban12:54
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 3–0
- Petry – Beaulieu16:02
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin11:44
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Fast – Miller9:31
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Stalberg7:09
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:09
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 0–3
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes9:52
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal3:42
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal11:03
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh12:47
xG 0.62–0.87 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).