Wed, Nov 25, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Chicago Blackhawks 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 16 | 29 | 526 |
| SJS | 15 | 012 | 112 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:56SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:24CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:20CHIDuncan KeithGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 11:20SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Brent Burns, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 12:27CHIAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Tanner Kero, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.32 xG4–2
- P3 19:17CHIAndrew ShawENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:02SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:46CHIRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03CHIMarcus Kruger: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:25SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:53CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:10SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:50CHIRyan Garbutt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:48CHIArtem Anisimov: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Mashinter – Kero5:04
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Garbutt – Shaw9:27
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:32
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Dano6:53
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:03
xG 1.70–0.33 (84%)attempts 26–6goals 2–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk12:06
xG 0.62–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Daley10:22
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Brown – Tierney4:50
xG 0.08–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:07
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Hertl5:46
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Donskoi8:06
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Martin – Vlasic2:10
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Burns – Mueller3:00
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic4:38
xG 0.15–0.24 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).