Fri, Nov 27, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 210 | 110 | 327 |
| BOS | 112 | 111 | 211 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:15BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:10NYROscar LindbergAssists: J.T. Miller, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:15NYRRick NashAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:34BOSBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Colin Miller, Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:28NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 16:14BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
- P3 18:17BOSDavid KrejciGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:18BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:06BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06NYRDylan McIlrath: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06NYRDylan McIlrath: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:02BOSBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:22NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:59BOSBrad Marchand: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 14:54NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller7:39
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Stoll – Moore – Etem10:44
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:20
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes6:13
xG 0.05–0.62 (8%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Yandle4:47
xG 0.06–0.00 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – McIlrath8:19
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi3:43
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Vatrano11:26
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Rinaldo – Ferraro8:09
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey9:21
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Spooner – Connolly – Kemppainen7:39
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller9:49
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Chara – McQuaid9:05
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug7:31
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).