Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 05 | 220 | 234 |
| WSH | 118 | 213 | 16 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Jason Chimera, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 18:03WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 19:18WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nate Schmidt · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 5:16WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 10:49TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Ryan Callahan, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 12:45TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:17TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:43WSHMichael Latta: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:30TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:05TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:16WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:48WSHMarcus Johansson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Condra – Vermin2:05
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown4:39
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Marchessault3:27
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Brown3:28
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman15:30
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Carle – Garrison11:07
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Coburn – Sustr12:17
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Burakovsky10:51
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:49
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:57
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson7:15
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt15:42
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Alzner17:02
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov11:11
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).