Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 19 | 04 | 01 | 126 |
| ARI | 08 | 15 | 05 | 13 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:29ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Tobias Rieder · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 16:40CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- OT 4:20ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Brad Richardson, Max Domi · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:58ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:58CGYMicheal Ferland: Charging2 min
- P1 18:00ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
- P2 9:09ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:10ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:00CGYKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:54ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:36ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:36CGYTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Colborne9:46
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ferland – Granlund – Jooris4:45
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett7:12
xG 0.10–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan11:19
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Hamilton12:51
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Wideman9:11
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie4:21
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Richardson – Martinook6:23
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair2:31
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Boedker – Rieder10:25
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:05
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Murphy10:15
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson16:10
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).