Sat, Nov 28, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 3, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 118 | 18 | 112 | 338 |
| ARI | 14 | 210 | 15 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:28OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:41ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 4:00ARIDustin JeffreyAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 17:57OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 13:29ARIMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Max Domi, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 14:45OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:42ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:53ARIDustin Jeffrey: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:28OTTAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:30ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25OTTKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Chiasson – Pageau7:57
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Prince8:56
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman12:38
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Stone – Zibanejad – Lazar10:18
xG 0.25–0.87 (22%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman11:51
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci13:58
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson19:10
xG 0.80–1.04 (43%)attempts 23–15goals 1–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Domi12:45
xG 1.20–0.37 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Jeffrey – Cunningham – Martinook7:29
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gordon – Richardson – Chipchura8:57
xG 0.05–0.27 (17%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair12:22
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson18:57
xG 1.15–0.45 (72%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
- Grossmann – Murphy17:29
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Elliott – Dahlbeck11:44
xG 0.12–0.68 (15%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).