Sat, Nov 28, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 07 | 210 | 227 |
| SJS | 211 | 212 | 16 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 12:36SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brenden Dillon · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 10:04SJSJoel WardPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 10:54SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 9:42CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 10:07SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 18:43CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:39SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:23SJSMirco Mueller: Charging2 min
- P2 8:16CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51CGYDennis Wideman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01SJSMirco Mueller: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:01CGYJoe Colborne: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Ferland – Monahan2:13
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ferland – Granlund – Jooris6:26
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Frolik – Colborne2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan2:53
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:20
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Wideman – Hamilton2:05
xG 0.17–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Wideman12:54
xG 0.38–0.59 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Nieto – Hertl11:50
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 3–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:03
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Donskoi11:16
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Brown – Tierney8:54
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns17:47
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 25–16goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Dillon16:42
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 16–21goals 3–1
- Tennyson – Mueller10:18
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).