Sun, Nov 29, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 013 | 19 | 11 | 232 |
| DET | 010 | 17 | 011 | 01 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:02DETDylan LarkinUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 14:38FLAReilly SmithAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 1:20FLABrian CampbellGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:43DETMike Green: Holding2 min
- P1 9:53FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P1 9:53DETMike Green: Embellishment2 min
- P1 10:49FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
- P2 0:27DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:23DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:56DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:13FLAJussi Jokinen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:13FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:13DETTomas Tatar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:13DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16DETDarren Helm: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:25FLALogan Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:57FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Pirri – Barkov7:12
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden8:24
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Trocheck – Shaw5:41
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Bjugstad – Huberdeau6:55
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson8:58
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad2:07
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Campbell11:49
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:33
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Jurco9:28
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening5:11
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Nyquist – Tatar2:24
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser10:31
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Green – Kindl2:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kindl – Marchenko10:54
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).