Tue, Dec 1, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 218 | 18 | 433 |
| OTT | 18 | 15 | 012 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:27PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:17OTTZack SmithAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:14PHIEvgeny MedvedevAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:20OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:35PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 18:15PHISean CouturierENAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:20PHIMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:35PHISean Couturier: Holding2 min
- P2 1:14OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:37OTTShane Prince: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P3 12:40OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier11:50
xG 1.44–0.30 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl12:12
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare10:39
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- McDonald – Cousins – Laughton5:27
xG 0.02–0.34 (7%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere11:52
xG 1.08–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas19:32
xG 1.00–0.52 (66%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Schenn – Medvedev12:27
xG 0.03–0.51 (5%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau3:09
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Prince5:19
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman14:41
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau4:46
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman9:44
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Cowen – Ceci12:22
xG 0.52–0.77 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:06
xG 0.23–0.98 (19%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).