Tue, Dec 1, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 14 | 16 | 05 | 215 |
| NSH | 013 | 114 | 414 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:20ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Max Domi, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 12:32NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 17:09ARIKyle ChipchuraAssists: Boyd Gordon, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 2:33NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:49NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 17:01NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:10NSHJames NealENAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:50ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:47NSHPekka Rinne: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09NSHSeth Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:11ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Gordon – Chipchura – Martinook5:10
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair14:37
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Jeffrey – Cunningham – Martinook2:45
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Jeffrey – Cunningham8:21
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:02
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Grossmann – Murphy16:02
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson19:55
xG 0.12–1.07 (10%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Jarnkrok – Forsberg7:06
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson8:39
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Arvidsson6:45
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Smith – Sissons5:40
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:58
xG 1.15–0.46 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 3–1
- Ellis – Ekholm15:32
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones16:30
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).