Tue, Dec 1, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 011 | 111 | 236 |
| CHI | 08 | 111 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:21CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 12:04MINRyan SuterGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:16MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:10MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:43CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:20CHITanner Kero: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:05CHITrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 6:43MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:49CHIMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund10:44
xG 1.70–0.64 (73%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:41
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula6:06
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter10:32
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin8:20
xG 0.66–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon5:17
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon9:01
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Dano7:52
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Teravainen – Kero4:59
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:38
xG 0.55–1.09 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Toews – Garbutt – Shaw8:43
xG 0.18–1.04 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Keith – Seabrook2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk17:48
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Daley8:24
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).