Tue, Dec 1, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 17 | 04 | 04 | 1 | 329 |
| CGY | 04 | 012 | 316 | 00 | 3 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:28DALCody EakinAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Valeri Nichushkin · Deflected, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 11:16DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Johnny Oduya, Jason Demers · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 1:51CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 3:01CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 17:42CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Sean Monahan, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne scored
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 4. DAL Patrick Sharp scored
- 5. CGY Sean Monahan scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:41DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:15CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:21DALJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:11DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:07CGYJiri Hudler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark9:09
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin11:32
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour8:04
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin11:43
xG 0.42–1.94 (18%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg19:04
xG 0.62–0.21 (74%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Oduya – Demers9:36
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Oduya – Benn5:01
xG 0.05–0.11 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Frolik – Backlund8:20
xG 1.28–0.10 (93%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Colborne – Ferland11:48
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan10:48
xG 0.97–0.81 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Hudler – Granlund – Bennett11:09
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Smid12:30
xG 1.31–0.29 (82%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
- Russell – Hamilton15:37
xG 1.02–0.78 (56%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie18:08
xG 0.62–0.63 (49%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).