Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 118 | 210 | 434 |
| VAN | 14 | 06 | 16 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:09DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:33DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 5:31VANJannik HansenAssists: Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 14:01DALPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:33DALJason SpezzaENAssists: Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.43 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:59VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:52VANRonalds Kenins: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:50VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:50VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:50DALAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min
- P1 12:50DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:24VANBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:28DALPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:23VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:55
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour5:12
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Janmark8:41
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin8:45
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn17:12
xG 0.90–0.61 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:51
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Nemeth – Oleksiak10:31
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Burrows – Cracknell – Baertschi4:36
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett3:24
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen14:12
xG 0.70–0.82 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Prust – Dorsett – McCann5:42
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Weber2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski13:29
xG 0.73–0.84 (46%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev15:23
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).