Fri, Dec 4, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 07 | 16 | 220 |
| BUF | 07 | 210 | 311 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:28ARIMax DomiAssists: Martin Hanzal, Stefan Elliott · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:17BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Josh Gorges · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:33BUFJamie McGinnAssists: Jack Eichel, Carlo Colaiacovo · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 2:40BUFEvander KaneSHGWGAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 6:42ARIMax DomiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 11:44BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:08BUFEvander KaneENAssists: Cody Franson, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:19ARIAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:12ARISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:39BUFEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Boedker – Domi13:58
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Gordon – Downie – Scott5:19
xG 0.08–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Chipchura – Martinook8:41
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Downie – Martinook2:11
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Elliott13:35
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:38
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson17:35
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart12:38
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Gionta – McGinn – Eichel9:28
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Moulson – Larsson – Girgensons8:27
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Girgensons – Eichel2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen14:45
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Bogosian16:55
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Franson – McCabe10:53
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).