Fri, Dec 4, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 425 |
| NJD | 15 | 07 | 26 | 00 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36NJDStefan MatteauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:56PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:12PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 1:55NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Patrik Elias, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:30PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Evgeny Medvedev · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:00NJDMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:24PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:56PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:43NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07PHIColin McDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 5:20NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:22PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:22NJDBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51PHIBrayden Schenn: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:53NJDBobby Farnham: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:53PHIChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:12PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P3 17:39PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Schenn – Raffl10:21
xG 0.35–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare9:20
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- McDonald – Cousins – Laughton5:30
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier11:52
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Medvedev11:34
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:21
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto14:00
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Gionta – Farnham5:08
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Elias – Palmieri – Josefson5:45
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique11:21
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Matteau – Kalinin6:59
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Merrill11:24
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Severson14:47
xG 0.16–0.41 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson14:28
xG 0.06–0.36 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).