Sat, Dec 5, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 313 | 15 | 01 | 432 |
| DET | 16 | 117 | 211 | 12 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:21DETBrad RichardsAssists: Tomas Tatar, Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:03NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:53NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:28NSHShea WeberPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 17:04DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Mike Green, Pavel Datsyuk · Deflected, 0.40 xG3–2
- P3 8:03NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 9:19DETDylan LarkinAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 17:37DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 1:41DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.18 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:37NSHSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:50DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:16NSHSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:48DETTomas Jurco: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:08NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:08NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:22DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:51NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:02DETJoakim Andersson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:21NSHRyan Ellis: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson9:13
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok3:13
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Watson10:19
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Hodgson – Forsberg9:47
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:17
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Jackman – Jones11:49
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi16:51
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Helm – Larkin2:50
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin7:33
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm9:25
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:24
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko9:31
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green17:21
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser14:48
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).