Sat, Dec 5, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 0, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 010 | 04 | 020 |
| MIN | 017 | 112 | 215 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:27MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 2:28MINJustin FontaineAssists: Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 18:58MINJason PominvilleENAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.61 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:49COLChris Wagner: Interference2 min
- P1 16:53MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:53COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:45MINZach Parise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:02MINErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08COLJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:46COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:19COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Pominville
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Wagner5:25
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Grigorenko9:03
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg9:46
xG 0.05–0.42 (11%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:44
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Barrie2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie14:20
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Guenin – Gormley5:31
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund12:25
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula7:34
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter10:51
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine10:39
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin13:49
xG 0.63–0.06 (92%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon12:38
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba6:56
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).