Sun, Dec 6, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 26 | 010 | 27 | 423 |
| CAR | 26 | 15 | 27 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49ARITobias RiederAssists: Stefan Elliott, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 2:18CARKris VersteegUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:55ARINicklas GrossmannAssists: Brad Richardson, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 18:36CARJay McClementAssists: Noah Hanifin, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 6:27CAREric StaalAssists: Elias Lindholm, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 6:34ARIStefan ElliottUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 13:41ARIAntoine VermettePPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.33 xG4–3
- P3 15:38CARRon HainseyAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 19:43CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Victor Rask, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:58ARIMikkel Boedker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:52CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:46CARKris Versteeg: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 0:30ARIAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:08CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22CARBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:45ARIMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:55ARIMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Downie – Martinook11:54
xG 0.63–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder4:14
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi3:26
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Gordon – Chipchura – Scott4:45
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Elliott14:37
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Michalek – Grossmann2:04
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:11
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:25
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn6:04
xG 0.48–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:26
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:33
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Hanifin3:37
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Faulk11:57
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hanifin8:59
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).