Mon, Dec 7, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 012 | 113 | 234 |
| VAN | 211 | 210 | 110 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Jamie McGinn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:08VANRadim VrbataAssists: Chris Higgins, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 16:42VANRadim VrbataAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:34VANBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 17:18VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 1:51BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:28VANRadim VrbataAssists: Adam Cracknell, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:22BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:10BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:14VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:49BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:14VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:59BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:05BUFMike Weber: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart7:25
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Larsson – Girgensons7:29
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart3:47
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Gionta – Kane – Eichel6:01
xG 0.12–0.20 (39%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Weber13:08
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen12:25
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Bogosian14:58
xG 0.72–0.98 (42%)attempts 18–16goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – McCann6:14
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett10:42
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat7:19
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen8:23
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:20
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Biega12:58
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 14–18goals 3–1
- Edler – Bartkowski2:03
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).