Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 115 | 116 | 12 | 341 |
| CBJ | 05 | 26 | 010 | 02 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:32CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 14:17CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Brandon Saad, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:38LAKChristian EhrhoffUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:33LAKJeff CarterAssists: Milan Lucic, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 4:33LAKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Nicholas Shore, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:21CBJGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:20LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:45CBJAndrew Bodnarchuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:07LAKMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:44CBJRyan Murray: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli12:04
xG 0.66–0.33 (66%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Nolan – Weal2:44
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson11:25
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Brown – Andreoff – Shore9:45
xG 0.17–0.95 (15%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort5:16
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain8:48
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Doughty – McNabb13:31
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Johansen – Jenner2:57
xG 1.21–0.13 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Karlsson3:21
xG 0.61–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jenner – Saad – Karlsson2:05
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Jenner – Karlsson2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard20:13
xG 1.70–0.87 (66%)attempts 18–31goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout15:41
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Bodnarchuk – Murray12:41
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).