Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 110 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 227 |
| TOR | 116 | 18 | 09 | 04 | 2 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24NJDLee StempniakPPAssists: John Moore, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 14:13TORPA ParenteauAssists: Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 2:12TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 13:20NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: David Schlemko, Jacob Josefson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 2. NJD Lee Stempniak stopped
- 3. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 4. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 6. NJD Michael Cammalleri scored
- 7. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 8. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 9. TOR Nazem Kadri scored
- 10. NJD David Schlemko stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:39TORRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:48NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:57TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:52NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:55NJDJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44NJDPatrik Elias: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:41TORByron Froese: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 18:30NJDMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:13TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Josefson2:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Josefson – O'Neill3:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique3:00
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Farnham – Kalinin4:23
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson11:11
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson2:09
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson11:00
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Grabner – Spaling7:46
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:36
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Holland13:18
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese5:59
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner12:13
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly2:53
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin7:53
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).