Wed, Dec 9, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 013 | 310 | 433 |
| COL | 210 | 04 | 012 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34COLMatt DucheneAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:56PITMatt CullenAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:00COLErik JohnsonAssists: Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:19PITBeau BennettAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 9:24PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 10:43PITBeau BennettAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:08PITMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:44COLReto Berra: Interference2 min
- P2 19:30PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30PITEvgeni Malkin: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 4:55PITDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:10COLNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P3 18:23PITDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Perron12:22
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett10:15
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Fehr – Hornqvist – Bonino6:34
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Sprong – Plotnikov5:21
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin13:26
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Letang – Maatta13:38
xG 0.54–0.16 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Cole – Warsofsky11:29
xG 0.28–0.30 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Soderberg – Martinsen9:33
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon3:43
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Skille – Wagner – Grigorenko6:35
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – McLeod7:55
xG 0.12–0.34 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:46
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Guenin – Gormley8:37
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie15:24
xG 0.13–1.21 (10%)attempts 9–24goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).