Thu, Dec 10, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 110 | 18 | 225 |
| DET | 010 | 17 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:18DETDarren HelmAssists: Luke Glendening, Joakim Andersson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 13:21MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Charles Hudon, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–1
- P3 4:30MTLTomas FleischmannAssists: David Desharnais, Daniel Carr · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 12:48DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 13:59DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:01MTLTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:01DETJustin Abdelkader: Charging2 min
- P1 15:38MTLJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:37DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 13:37MTLDaniel Carr: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:23MTLBrian Flynn: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:23DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42MTLTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:30MTLAlexei Emelin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Carr9:38
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Flynn – Hudon – Andrighetto5:00
xG 0.52–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Eller10:28
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Weise – Galchenyuk8:34
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry14:41
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban12:13
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Pateryn8:35
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Andersson – Jurco2:10
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin11:39
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening3:43
xG 0.01–0.16 (9%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm9:43
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser14:50
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Green12:56
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Marchenko11:42
xG 0.08–0.76 (10%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).