Thu, Dec 10, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 013 | 110 | 131 |
| TBL | 16 | 011 | 313 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 0:25TBLValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: JT Brown, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 8:33TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 12:06OTTCody CeciAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:46TBLJT BrownENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:47TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P1 14:12OTTAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07TBLRyan Callahan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:07OTTJared Cowen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:44OTTChris Wideman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:10TBLJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:13TBLValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau6:15
xG 0.25–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Zibanejad14:01
xG 0.51–0.75 (41%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman13:38
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci13:01
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cowen – Wideman9:03
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson12:01
xG 0.07–0.51 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown9:20
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Drouin12:25
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:45
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault7:59
xG 0.13–0.35 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman9:28
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Garrison – Hedman8:04
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Garrison – Nesterov5:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).