Thu, Dec 10, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 013 | 116 | 136 |
| NSH | 318 | 08 | 28 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54NSHJames NealAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:56NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 16:33NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
- P3 5:43CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 14:55NSHJames NealUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 18:46NSHEric NystromENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.39 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:36NSHBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:36CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:02NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00CHIAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:07NSHBarret Jackman: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 17:03NSHMiikka Salomaki: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Shaw – Rasmussen8:51
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Garbutt6:34
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Teravainen10:56
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:28
xG 0.33–1.36 (19%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Rundblad12:41
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk15:59
xG 0.71–0.81 (47%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk2:10
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Watson – Sissons7:43
xG 0.84–0.07 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Arvidsson10:29
xG 0.87–0.81 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg14:21
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki7:55
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm16:37
xG 1.55–0.89 (64%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Weber – Josi16:49
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Jackman – Jones17:46
xG 0.28–1.28 (18%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).