Fri, Dec 11, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 29 | 27 | 524 |
| ANA | 09 | 07 | 116 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:35CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Victor Rask, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 16:53CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 14:09ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Sami Vatanen, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 16:43CARJordan StaalAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 17:36CARJeff SkinnerENAssists: Brett Pesce, Eddie Lack · Tip-in, 0.75 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:25ANANate Thompson: Elbowing5 min
- P1 6:25ANANate Thompson: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 8:53CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:59CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:28ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:57CARRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:57ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm12:23
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- McClement – Terry – Malone7:45
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe12:43
xG 0.64–0.89 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom12:35
xG 0.13–0.68 (16%)attempts 5–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Faulk2:39
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin2:50
xG 0.25–0.36 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce13:10
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Perry – Cogliano5:37
xG 0.62–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Stewart – Maroon4:42
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kesler – Santorelli – Silfverberg5:09
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Silfverberg – Rakell2:12
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:03
xG 1.13–0.39 (75%)attempts 26–7goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen12:54
xG 0.66–0.28 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler16:07
xG 0.45–1.05 (30%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).