Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 110 | 08 | 126 |
| MTL | 227 | 19 | 06 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 19:27MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:39MTLJeff PetryAssists: Dale Weise, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 11:24OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Alex Chiasson, Dave Dziurzynski · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:38OTTErik Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 0:00OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:27OTTChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:48MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:14MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:02OTTMark Stone: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Hoffman12:34
xG 1.01–0.55 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Neil – Dziurzynski – Lazar3:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau6:25
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Stone – Zibanejad10:47
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch4:51
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson14:03
xG 0.96–0.70 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Cowen – Ceci4:21
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Pacioretty12:04
xG 0.92–0.44 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Flynn – Hudon – Andrighetto6:16
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Carr10:02
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Eller – Weise – Galchenyuk8:19
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:56
xG 0.84–0.51 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu12:15
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Emelin – Petry12:38
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).