Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 211 | 113 | 18 | 11 | 533 |
| ARI | 07 | 18 | 313 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37CARKris VersteegAssists: Justin Faulk, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 19:56CARAndrej NestrasilPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 15:24CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 18:22ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 0:40CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 1:43ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Viktor Tikhonov, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 3:23ARIKyle ChipchuraAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 19:44ARIConnor MurphyAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 0:53CARVictor RaskGWGAssists: Eddie Lack, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:00ARIJordan Martinook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:01CARChris Terry: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:46ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49ARISteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:03CARChris Terry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:56
xG 0.55–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:02
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:06
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- McClement – Terry – Malone5:10
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Pesce17:36
xG 1.28–0.47 (73%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk19:07
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
- Slavin – Hanifin11:06
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Chipchura2:46
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook9:58
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder10:27
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Tikhonov – Duclair – Domi12:07
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Grossmann – Murphy14:51
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson19:02
xG 0.85–0.97 (47%)attempts 20–20goals 2–1
- Elliott – Dahlbeck11:59
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).