Mon, Dec 14, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 113 | 16 | 229 |
| CBJ | 07 | 17 | 012 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:11TBLJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:46CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 6:13TBLBrian BoyleSHGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:21CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00TBLRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P3 5:51TBLRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:14CBJBrandon Saad: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Blunden – Killorn5:39
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Killorn – Marchessault4:07
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown12:10
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov16:57
xG 0.31–1.01 (23%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Nesterov3:39
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Hedman2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Stralman3:24
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Clarkson – Karlsson6:14
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jenner – Saad12:48
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg2:27
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson3:32
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard8:07
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Connauton12:17
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray10:34
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).