Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 27 | 07 | 220 |
| NYR | 19 | 26 | 16 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Keith Yandle, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:12EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:54NYRDylan McIlrathAssists: Keith Yandle, Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 18:20EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:21NYRRick NashPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
- P3 19:56NYRJesper FastENAssists: Dominic Moore, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:08NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:30EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:20NYRDylan McIlrath: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:37NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:41EDMAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08EDMLuke Gazdic: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:03NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:46NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:49EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 14:25EDMAnton Lander: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu6:45
xG 0.49–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:01
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl10:15
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Klinkhammer – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins7:07
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Schultz11:36
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gryba – Davidson11:09
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse11:18
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Miller7:38
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:23
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Etem5:12
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes7:27
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – McDonagh13:04
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:36
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Yandle – McIlrath9:53
xG 0.29–0.28 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).