Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 110 | 212 | 11 | 527 |
| TOR | 216 | 18 | 112 | 01 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:40TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 18:03TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 11:34TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 19:24TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:56TBLMike BlundenAssists: Yanni Gourde, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 6:32TBLJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 13:28TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Roman Polak, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 2:01TBLVladislav NamestnikovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:41TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P1 9:21TBLAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 0:59TORDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:46TORDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:30TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:20TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Killorn – Marchessault11:35
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown11:11
xG 0.21–0.28 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blunden – Gourde2:34
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:15
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 10–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman16:38
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 19–24goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr14:09
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Hedman – Nesterov3:39
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:29
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Lupul – Matthias – Froese6:29
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Holland12:29
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Winnik – Grabner – Spaling8:57
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Corrado6:29
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Polak – Gardiner3:55
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner14:38
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).