Wed, Dec 16, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 09 | 110 | 127 |
| WSH | 114 | 14 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:06WSHMichael LattaAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:43WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Michael Latta · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 15:46OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.31 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:34OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:54WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:20OTTKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20WSHTom Wilson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 15:20OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Dziurzynski – Lazar2:30
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:07
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau9:27
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Stone14:03
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:13
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cowen – Wideman6:46
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:59
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:19
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson10:09
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Burakovsky5:43
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:30
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov13:45
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:17
xG 0.84–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt15:51
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).