Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 221 | 07 | 214 | 12 | 544 |
| TOR | 19 | 214 | 18 | 00 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:32SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 14:48TORPeter HollandAssists: Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 4:50TORLeo KomarovAssists: Frank Corrado, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:14TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: PA Parenteau, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 1:59TORMichael GrabnerAssists: Peter Holland, Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 3:10SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Justin Braun · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 11:49SJSMatt NietoAssists: Chris Tierney, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 2:13SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:55TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:02TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:47SJSDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 8:11SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:44TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference2 min
- P3 5:06TORMatt Hunwick: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:26SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Thornton – Pavelski11:38
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – Tierney2:28
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl2:36
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Nieto – Hertl5:26
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns15:54
xG 0.91–0.83 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:39
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Burns – Vlasic4:57
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Komarov – Kadri9:15
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:35
xG 0.65–0.33 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Winnik – Grabner – Holland11:04
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner12:43
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Corrado8:39
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Polak – Rielly15:57
xG 1.09–0.90 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).