Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 27 | 37 | 27 | 721 |
| ARI | 16 | 312 | 114 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 2:26CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Cam Atkinson, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 8:51ARIAntoine VermetteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 8:15ARIViktor TikhonovPPAssists: Jordan Martinook, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P2 8:25ARITobias RiederAssists: Antoine Vermette, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 9:10CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 10:23CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Curtis McElhinney · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P2 12:21ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Shane Doan · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–4
- P2 17:11CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 2:19CBJDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–4
- P3 3:19ARITobias RiederAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–5
- P3 19:10CBJBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.58 xG7–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:59ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:21CBJScott Hartnell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:58CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:58CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58ARIJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:05CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Saad – Wennberg11:31
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Clarkson – Foligno – Jenner12:41
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Karlsson4:18
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Saad – Wennberg2:16
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Murray20:15
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Bodnarchuk – Falk14:24
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout2:07
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Rieder11:49
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 20–7goals 3–1
- Gordon – Downie – Scott4:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook9:55
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Chipchura – Tikhonov – Domi10:48
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy16:55
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 17–5goals 3–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Elliott2:20
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Elliott – Dahlbeck8:41
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).