Fri, Dec 18, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 211 | 04 | 319 |
| WSH | 010 | 17 | 46 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18TBLAlex KillornAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:54TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 9:04TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 13:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, John Carlson · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 7:54WSHT.J. OshieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:02WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Jason Chimera, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 14:16WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:35WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:19WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:35WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:17TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:53WSHJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53TBLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:16WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:39TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:35
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 24–11goals 2–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown10:00
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Killorn – Marchessault7:27
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Blunden – Angelidis – Gourde7:11
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr15:00
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman14:39
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Stralman – Garrison2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:18
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Laich – Latta – Burakovsky7:40
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson9:00
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:29
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Alzner16:29
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
- Carlson – Schmidt15:52
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
- Chorney – Orlov12:35
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).