Sat, Dec 19, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 09 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
| BUF | 05 | 114 | 17 | 01 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04CHIDennis RasmussenAssists: Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 6:37BUFCody FransonAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 16:40BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:26CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 10:20CHIRyan Garbutt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:27BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:27BUFRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:26BUFCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:50CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Teravainen12:30
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Bickell – Shaw – Rasmussen9:23
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:48
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Garbutt – Danault10:00
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson16:52
xG 0.83–0.77 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Scuderi13:17
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Larsson – Girgensons12:32
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers7:22
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart14:04
xG 0.82–0.82 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Ennis – Kane – Eichel11:54
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe18:21
xG 0.75–0.47 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Franson – Weber13:11
xG 0.08–0.37 (17%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen19:01
xG 0.38–0.73 (34%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).