Sat, Dec 19, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 08 | 09 | 026 |
| TOR | 17 | 012 | 415 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31TORLeo KomarovGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 3:58TORMichael GrabnerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 13:34TORMichael GrabnerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 16:38TORLeo KomarovAssists: Morgan Rielly, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.33 xG0–4
- P3 17:27TORByron FroeseAssists: Brad Boyes, Shawn Matthias · Snap, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (1)
- P1 9:26TORPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestNolan – Andreoff – Shore9:31
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson10:39
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lucic15:51
xG 0.88–0.84 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 0–4
- Brown – Lewis – Mersch10:35
xG 0.09–1.00 (8%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez16:13
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Doughty5:23
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain10:02
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Matthias – Froese11:02
xG 1.06–0.21 (83%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri12:10
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland11:36
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:49
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner18:31
xG 1.04–0.38 (73%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Rielly15:29
xG 1.00–0.86 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 3–0
- Polak – Marincin12:54
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).