Sun, Dec 20, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Vancouver Canucks 4, Florida Panthers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 214 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 434 |
| FLA | 213 | 213 | 08 | 08 | 2 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32VANJannik HansenAssists: Alex Biega, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:26FLAShawn ThorntonAssists: Connor Brickley, Rocco Grimaldi · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 15:29VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 19:48FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 5:38FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 6:09VANDerek DorsettAssists: Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- P2 8:31FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P2 14:40VANDaniel SedinAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
- 2. VAN Jared McCann scored
- 3. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 6. VAN Sven Baertschi stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:28VANAlexander Edler: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:44FLACorban Knight: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:54VANLinden Vey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:44FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:46VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Cracknell – Dorsett11:01
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat10:57
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Vey11:00
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Sedin – Hansen – McCann10:33
xG 0.12–0.31 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Hutton14:01
xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Edler – Tanev15:12
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:49
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:41
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Brickley – Grimaldi6:53
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck14:33
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Pirri – Knight – Shaw11:10
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ekblad16:48
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad4:03
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov2:11
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).