Sun, Dec 20, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 110 | 07 | 225 |
| TBL | 211 | 114 | 210 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Curtis Lazar · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 5:23TBLNikita NesterovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 7:16TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:45TBLMike AngelidisGWGAssists: Mike Blunden, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 14:28OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:27TBLAlex KillornENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
- P3 18:40TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:40OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference5 min · PPG
- P1 1:40OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:40TBLBraydon Coburn: Instigator2 min
- P1 1:40TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:40OTTMark Borowiecki: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 1:40TBLBraydon Coburn: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:03OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:50TBLRyan Callahan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:51TBLBen Bishop: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P3 8:56OTTErik Karlsson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:55TBLVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Stone7:56
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad3:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau3:28
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Prince – Pageau3:19
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Wideman3:26
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson3:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci2:02
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Killorn12:10
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:02
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Blunden – Angelidis – Marchessault3:37
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Blunden – Angelidis – Condra6:26
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Nesterov3:57
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman10:20
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Coburn – Nesterov5:25
xG 0.23–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).