Tue, Dec 22, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 115 | 012 | 239 |
| ARI | 29 | 010 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:16ARIShane DoanAssists: Stefan Elliott, Brad Richardson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:30ARIShane DoanAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 14:00TORNazem KadriAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 6:06ARIConnor MurphyGWGAssists: Brad Richardson, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:24TORJoffrey Lupul: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:56ARIMichael Stone: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 18:17TORPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P2 8:06TORPeter Holland: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06ARIMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01TORNazem Kadri: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 19:10ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:29TORMartin Marincin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:21
xG 0.33–0.22 (61%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland8:53
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese4:40
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri10:57
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly6:03
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Polak – Marincin7:04
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:22
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Chipchura12:18
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Tikhonov – Duclair – Domi4:57
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder7:37
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Tikhonov – Rieder – Duclair2:04
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestElliott – Dahlbeck10:04
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy17:17
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 16–24goals 1–1
- Grossmann – Stone9:22
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).