Tue, Dec 22, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 19 | 38 | 523 |
| LAK | 221 | 15 | 010 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:32LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 12:12SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 17:48LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:45SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 6:06SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 7:38SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 18:50SJSBrent BurnsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:55LAKTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:55SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:55SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:44LAKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:22LAKMichael Mersch: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:39SJSPaul Martin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:19SJSMike Brown: Holding2 min
- P3 6:02LAKChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41LAKMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Zubrus – Thornton – Pavelski11:17
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Brown – Smith – Karlsson3:34
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Donskoi – Nieto10:05
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Wingels – Hertl – Tierney11:22
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo8:44
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns13:33
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun17:41
xG 0.58–1.05 (35%)attempts 11–24goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Shore11:41
xG 0.85–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson10:33
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff4:19
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lucic14:28
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:04
xG 1.35–0.39 (77%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Doughty3:00
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb17:37
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).