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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.

TBL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1151908232
TBL193917525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:34TBLMike BlundenAssists: Andrej Sustr, Erik Condra · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:44CBJRene BourqueAssists: Boone Jenner, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:07CBJScott HartnellAssists: Dalton Prout, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:21TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.25 xG2–2
  5. P2 6:53TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:17TBLNikita NesterovPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 4:39TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Mike Blunden · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:50CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 14:13TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 16:36CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
  4. P2 4:56CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 4:56CBJGregory Campbell: Delaying game face off violation2 min
  6. P2 4:59CBJJack Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  7. P2 9:29CBJScott Hartnell: Charging5 min · PPG
  8. P2 9:29CBJScott Hartnell: Game misconduct10 min
  9. P2 9:29CBJRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:29TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 9:29TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 2:24TBLMike Blunden: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 14:18TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
  14. P3 17:51CBJAndrew Bodnarchuk: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
47% to win54% to win
← CBJ attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Filppula
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJTBL
32Shots on goal25
2.0Expected goals2.2
51Shot attempts53
38Faceoffs won26
3Power plays8
32Penalty minutes13
29Hits17
17Blocked shots11
7Giveaways6
9Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestBourque – Johansen – Jenner3:59

    xG 0.36–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

  2. Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg4:47

    xG 0.26–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0

  3. Campbell – Clarkson – Calvert2:39

    xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  4. Campbell – Clarkson – Karlsson3:48

    xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – Murray14:01

    xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0

  2. Tyutin – Prout11:28

    xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0

  3. Bodnarchuk – Falk9:25

    xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown6:52

    xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

  2. Killorn – Marchessault – Paquette4:57

    xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  3. Filppula – Killorn – Marchessault3:40

    xG 0.13–0.21 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1

  4. Blunden – Angelidis – Condra6:26

    xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – Nesterov3:10

    xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Coburn – Stralman3:44

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0

  3. Coburn – Nesterov2:17

    xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.2 xGCBJ 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #507 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.57 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.

TBL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).