Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 113 | 16 | 323 |
| NSH | 16 | 19 | 011 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34DETBrendan SmithAssists: Alexey Marchenko, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:19NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:55DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P2 17:11NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:45DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Brendan Smith, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:57DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:04DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:27NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 1:16NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:10NSHFilip Forsberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco7:48
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm10:32
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Andersson – Glendening – Nosek5:08
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist13:36
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko2:59
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Smith – DeKeyser2:16
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser14:26
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki7:24
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Sissons – Arvidsson6:17
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok13:59
xG 0.27–0.37 (43%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:47
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:08
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm12:55
xG 0.15–0.71 (18%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Jackman – Jones11:27
xG 0.24–0.81 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).