Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 4, Arizona Coyotes 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 010 | 314 | 11 | 433 |
| ARI | 19 | 07 | 211 | 00 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:37LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:17LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:23LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Nicholas Shore, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 16:07ARIAntoine VermettePPAssists: Michael Stone, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 16:37ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Max Domi, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 0:36LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:31LAKMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10LAKDerek Forbort: Interference2 min
- P1 12:08ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:08LAKTyler Toffoli: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:28LAKMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:10ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:10LAKDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:26ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:37ARIViktor Tikhonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46ARIBrad Richardson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57ARIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:24ARINicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:50ARIMax Domi: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:20LAKJake Muzzin: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 14:53LAKAlec Martinez: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Shore5:56
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff5:27
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Pearson2:42
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lucic8:30
xG 0.10–0.24 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort5:05
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- McBain – Muzzin5:32
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Martinez – Forbort3:24
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTikhonov – Duclair – Domi9:11
xG 0.57–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder2:52
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Gordon – Martinook2:28
xG 0.03–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Chipchura5:17
xG 0.13–0.15 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy11:44
xG 0.66–0.51 (57%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Grossmann – Stone10:38
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck7:29
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).