Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 09 | 08 | 03 | 133 |
| VAN | 06 | 111 | 05 | 12 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55EDMMark LetestuAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:37VANJannik HansenAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 4:01VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Jacob Markstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 11:44VANYannick Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:55EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:32EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 8:04VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29VANJared McCann: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu8:54
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl16:29
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen2:55
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:10
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne13:52
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Gryba10:07
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Schultz – Nurse17:41
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat10:44
xG 0.65–0.07 (90%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Vey7:25
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen12:55
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Dorsett – Kenins – McCann7:39
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Hutton12:19
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Bartkowski3:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Edler – Bartkowski2:32
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).