Sun, Dec 27, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 012 | 16 | 12 | 228 |
| COL | 114 | 09 | 013 | 03 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, John Mitchell · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:34ARIMichael StoneAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 4:17ARIMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Brad Richardson, Anders Lindback · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:00ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:15COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:15ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 16:15COLAlex Tanguay: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:48COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23ARISteve Downie: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 12:23COLAndreas Martinsen: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:23ARISteve Downie: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:23ARISteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:15COLCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
- P2 19:52COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:52ARIAntoine Vermette: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:30COLErik Johnson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:30ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Comeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Tikhonov – Domi3:54
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Downie – Scott4:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tikhonov – Duclair – Domi2:40
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook12:37
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Stone13:37
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy18:14
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Elliott – Dahlbeck10:02
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Martinsen10:01
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – MacKinnon10:35
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- McLeod – Skille – Grigorenko6:19
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Duchene – Landeskog10:45
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson16:46
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Redmond – Gormley10:03
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Holden2:31
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).