Mon, Dec 28, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 18 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 434 |
| TBL | 011 | 116 | 211 | 01 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: P.K. Subban, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 5:40TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 9:57MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 13:21TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:42TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 14:14MTLDale WeiseAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. TBL Valtteri Filppula scored
- 4. MTL Brian Flynn scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:03TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:15MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:32MTLTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Carr10:08
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn8:37
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise13:06
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Fleischmann – Andrighetto14:39
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Pateryn – Barberio12:25
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Markov – Petry16:58
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 20–20goals 2–0
- Subban – Beaulieu20:49
xG 0.35–0.76 (32%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:36
xG 0.85–0.28 (76%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Brown11:08
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Condra – Paquette2:17
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown3:25
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr13:40
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman14:35
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Coburn – Garrison2:14
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).